I've stopped paying much attention when Israeli and American leaders meet to discuss real estate. That prime strip of Mediterranean coastal property is so full of historical neighborhoods and nice views, but its complex layers of ownership, with the legal validity of its various deeds and covenants, the Hatfield-McCoy culture is just plain tautological and tiresome.
I don't have a mind for following all of the implications of Hamas not recognizing, but negotiating with the Zionists, or the policy prescriptions that would come to pass under a Labor or Likud government. I don't have much patience for bronze age mentality religious fundamentalism, squabbles of one patch of dirt over another, or guys who would rather blow themselves up than speak eloquently about their plight. I'm tired of the bull-headed, though somewhat justified paranoia of the Israeli public.
There are so many intractable positions on all sides of this conflict that I cannot foresee any solution without an outside force dictating terms.
No side can afford weakness; all sides have been burned by such acts in the past. In move that is underappreciated for its cynicism, Ariel Sharon hands Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority, only to have them swept out by Hamas, followed by an endless barrage of rockets, which in turn precipitates a mass invasion of the miserable strip of land, and a probably illegal blockade of its citizens.
Ehud Barak offers terms giving Arafat 95 percent of the West Bank and all of Gaza, with a land exchange for the other 5 percent. Arafat says no, after years photo ops, grins, trustbuilding and chance taking. The labor government loses credibility, Arafat gets sick and dies. Palestinians see a cold, intransigent Israel build a wall around them, hopelessness in a slab of concrete across the road. Helplessness in each of 400 checkpoints intended to provide safety to the Israeli heartland, and nothing new or different.
Ceasefires cannot be maintained on either side. Israeli settlers routinely disobey army orders, and Palestinians are too factional to all agree to play nice.
No side can confront, contain or coopt their zealots beyond a stalemate. No one group has any moral authority after so much bloodshed. There can be no honest brokering of a deal without outside assurances.
In my view, the only way there will ever be a lasting, productive peace in the region is if all sides agree to a multinational army patrolling an agreed-upon border, and providing day-to-day police in a proto-Palestine. I am convinced that the factionalization of Palestinians is far less than what can be found in Iraq or Afghanistan. Their differences are political, not tribal.
Because blood is less of a factor in Palestine than elsewhere in the mid-east, they are far more likely to one day have a centralized army, police force, and government, provided that assurances can be made for their immediate security, prosperity and sovereignty. Those assurances will not come from Israel or the United States alone. They must be multi-national, with the backing of all of Israel's neighbors (including Syria).
The Israel-Palestine conflict more closely resembles the former Yugoslav conflicts of the 90s than anything going on right now in the mid-east. Borders need to be set, and given time to harden before a real peace can happen. Those conditions have never existed in the region because of the world's insistence on dealing with Israel and Palestine on their own terms. NATO would provide a good mix of allies for both sides of the disagreement, avoiding the pro-Israel bias of the US, or the pro-Palestinian bias of the UN.
I do not understand why we think that another meeting with another prime minister, another president will make the difference. It feels more and more like a dog chasing its tail than some kind of peace process. The details of a final agreement are almost entirely settled. What's missing is security, and protection from one side's nut cases or another, with neither side having anywhere near the credibility to do so unilaterally. The world needs to step up. Israel and Palestine need ultimatums-- real help for economic development, real security, a real future, or not. This conflict is too much of a problem for everyone to allow these players to squabble forever.
