Paper Tigress

I'll put my cards on the table now, before events have played out too far and say I think Sarah Palin will be a net negative on the Republican ticket. For all of the talk of suburban moms running out to get their hair cut the same way and mocking community organizers, there's just nothing there. There's nothing behind their own campaign aside from oil interests and a newly coopted (though not gullible) evangelical political establishment. On issue after issue after issue they are on the wrong side of American opinion.

In '04 the big issues were Iraq and terrorism. Reasonable people could disagree on what to do i.e., the policy debate. In '04 reasonable people could disagree on whose candidacy gave them more confidence in America, i.e., the emotional debate that Republicans are supposed to be good at, even though it's gotten them a slim, sometimes contested majority of delegates in the past two elections and nothing before that since Reagan and Willie Horton. In '08 the big issues are the economy, housing, energy, the environment, and yes, Iraq and terrorism. With the possible exception of energy American views heavily favor the Democratic positions. And at least some people actually like the Democratic ticket. Nobody liked Kerry and people's plastic detectors went off at Edwards.

I have never heard so much hair shirt wearing self flagellation as I've heard over the past week since McCain picked his running mate. Never has there been so much despair around an opponent's vice presidential nominee. Who cares if throngs of housewives show up at rallies, or if the Christian Right is suddenly energized by her candidacy? Neither are the voting bloc they once were. Neither women nor Christian evangelicals are that easy to pigeonhole or patronize. What's more, for those who are so easily swayed, they probably were waiting for an excuse to vote for McCain anyway, the so-called shy Tory, or the "Silent Majority". Now they've been flushed out, a known quantity, and not too bad. Meanwhile, Republican leaders are jubilant, telling America that Obama should have picked Hillary, spinning the yarn that personality will win over issues. Well coulda woulda shoulda. As if their candidates' personalities are automatically appealing while the other guy's aren't. What unbelievable hubris. Reminds me of Achilles.

For the remaining independents susceptible to this sort of identity politics, just wait until real flaws and doubts arise, as exist for McCain, Obama, Biden, both Clintons and both Bushes, and anyone else who has spent any time in the spotlight of a national campaign. Once her image is sullied by some offhanded comment, some sly gesture, something, adoration will shift either to resignation or revulsion; neither of which are good for turn-out. Obama was placed on a pedestal by many of his disciples, attaining feverish cult status that does not befit a democratic society. He was put on high and has since been taken back down to earth. Having it happen even before the convention will prove to be a blessing. Buyer's remorse has happened already for Obama, and the candidate survived in good shape. With just over 50 days to go, the Obama campaign can only trend up, while the McCain campaign will hold steady at best. People will become galvanized to his candidacy, but that would have happened anyway, or else we could have expected a blow-out, which no one ever expected.

Turnout matters too. Democrats have been at it for months, with bigger operations and more money than ever before. Republicans have one popular spokesperson they hired last week.

Even if Palin does well in the debates and public appearances, she won't be perfect, she won't appeal to everyone, and at the end of the campaign, she won't be president. Voters will vote for McCain, not her. We've seen the top of their game. That's all they've got. Expect more smears.

For any number of reasons, this race isn't over, but it won't be won or lost over who's on the ticket for vice president.