Health Reformers: Don't Freak Out!

... don't do it!

Everywhere I turn on the left side of the blogosphere I hear cries of betrayal, disillusionment, anger and frustration with the health reform process. Everywhere on the right I hear triumphalism, and a cloying sense that defeating this initiative is both possible, and the key to their rightful, unapologetic return next year.

We know that both sides hold few traits in common. One thing I think they share is the reading of statements and the events that surround them at face value, and on an ever-shortening time horizon.

But take a step back and ask yourself:

• Does it really make sense for the president to just plain give up on central elements of policy because of bad vibes coming from congressional districts? Without any indication of a good faith effort from the other side?
  
• Did it really make sense for the Senate Finance committee to take end-of-life language out of their bill because of some irrational agitation?
• Are these guys really so cravenly stupid as to be so subject to shifts in media coverage and public opinion?

I'd bet my IRA that the answer's no to all three. The name of the game is surviving an August recess where all the cards are stacked against them. Reformers, take heart of the facts on your side, and don't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory when you don't have to.

Consider these truths:

• The 'public option' is alive and well in three House committees, and one Senate committee. All the capitulation is contained in one fifth of the legislative effort. You're still batting .800
• The end-of-life language was taken out of the Senate Finance bill... that's it. Once the whole matter cools down, I can guarantee that it'll end up in the bill that comes out of conference committee.
• The House and Senate are dominated by Democrats, and the leadership in both chambers is on board with the left-leaning approaches. They get to decide who goes to committee to negotiate a final bill, and they place the pressure on members to hold the party line.

Consider this possibility:

Why in hell would the president and the senate give up the farm when they're not even in session, and knowing that they'd never get anything out of the deal? My view is that they've calculated a decent win-win proposition.

The best-case scenario is that the opposition overplays their hand, showing that there is not deal on Earth or in Heaven that would satisfy them, despite widespread public demand for one. The liberal base is enraged by all of this, and puts immense pressure on the handful of senators holding this thing up. When the legislation goes to conference committee, and the GOP has nothing, they'll be left with an unpopular opposing view and nothing else.

The worst-case scenario is that the opposition galvanizes around defeat, and liberal activists cower in submission, or make non-negotiable claims, all the while knowing that their entire political ascendancy depends on passing something, anything, so long as it works. For that, they certainly have the votes, and a chance to fight another day. The softer message works to lower expectations for activists and the public-- a tactic that the Bush administration was masterful at pulling off.

In a monologue, Jon Stewart asked whether the Obama administration was staffed by a bunch of Jedis who were ten steps ahead of everyone else. I have to assume this is true because the alternative seems so implausible. On all sides, a game is being played by a competent, savvy and tough set of players. Expect a little subterfuge from them. They're politicians.

The Executive and Legislative leadership is not as weak or as stupid as the conventional wisdom on both sides seems so ready to believe. They just see no point in fighting when there is nothing to win right now. The real wins and losses happen when people come back from vacation, not now.

Have a little faith in September, and show your support today!