Having spent a little time in the bazaars, suqs and casbahs of the middle-east, I’m no better at negotiating, but still I’ve managed to glean a few useful lessons. Here are a few:
1. Always hide your bottom line. A seller who tells you what he paid for something is lying every time. Telling a seller that you’ll only pay so much for something will lead to excuses and feigned anger.
2. Everyone wants something better than their bottom line. Profits and bargains are made this way. No seller will ever let something go for less than what they paid.
3. All stories of hardship are half-true at best. All stories about family, hardship, the cost of getting something to market, its rarity or value to the outside world, should mostly be ignored.
4. Don’t mistake a tough negotiator for a bad person. After the deal’s done, you may find that they’re beyond hospitable.
5. As long as you can walk away and the other guy knows it, you’re in the power position. Never look desperate. Make polite excuses while ignoring their own.
Here in the west, we’re accustomed to everything having a price tag. We expect rules to be rules, and assume that we’ll get a fair deal most of the time without trying. In the middle-east, none of that applies. Everything is negotiable, and everyone is negotiating. Maximalist positions, bizarre statements, and dramatic pleas for mercy are all part of the process. Taking any of it at face value is not only counter to its intent, but also just about the worst thing you can do as party to an agreement.
Take the middle-east’s reactions to Obama’s declaration that a settlement between Israel and Palestine be based on the 1967 borders. This position has been the basis of all negotiations since at least the time of Clinton. All but the most radical elements on both sides have a pretty clear understanding that a final settlement will involve a litany of tradeoffs around that fraying 44-year-old line. How to the rules of the bazaar apply?
1. Always hide your bottom line. The major sticking points in a negotiation are around the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, land swaps for Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and the security guarantees of a unity government that includes Hamas, who has yet to recognize Israel as a state. We all know these things. They’re real issues. What no one knows is what has to give, and in what ways, for both sides to walk away happy.
2. Everyone wants something better than their bottom line. If one side just goes for the minimal acceptable deal, then they’ll get less than that. To maximize one’s own position, you have to ask for more. Israel has to get security guarantees out of Palestine and the deal-brokers in the west. Palestine will have to demand the right of return for all its refugee populations in Syria, Jordan and elsewhere. Otherwise, a deal will leave all of them with no rights. Jerusalem is all-or-nothing; anything less, and you’ve already conceded that it doesn’t matter so much.
3. All stories of hardship are half-true at best. I’ve been in rooms with West Bank Jewish settlers who break down in tears at the thought of having to leave their hard-fought lands, without mentioning who lost in that struggle. I’ve heard many Palestinians speak about the occupation without once bringing up terrorism. There’s no point in arguing over equivalence. Acknowledging the other side’s hardships weakens one’s own position. Callousness shouldn’t be confused with being less than serious about a deal.
4. Don’t mistake a tough negotiator for a bad person. There are elements within Likud, Kadima, Hamas, and Fatah, who have made ridiculous demands, stated half-truths, screamed bloody murder and accused the other side of the worst crimes. Some of it’s true, some isn’t, and some is just speculation. It’s all part of the process. Cutting through all of that to see if there really is good will on the other side of the table is essential. Token sacrifices of one’s own position can help assess this. We see that on both sides, like when Netanyahu calls for a two-state solution and loosens the West Bank checkpoints, or Hamas goes to lengths to enforce a ceasefire among the Gaza militants. It’s an article of faith, but I believe that all of these people really can live together. They just need to get through to a final deal.
5. As long as you can walk away and the other guy knows it, you’re in the power position. Here is where I worry. Neither side can walk away. Both sides face real, existential threats from the other. Israel’s perpetual stalling on talks while building new settlements shows an almost glib disregard for both adversaries and allies. Demographic pressures, and the moral danger of becoming an apartheid-pariah state all demand a deal. Palestinians who expect the Arab Spring to sweep them into statehood should be prepared for a pushback not only from Israel, but from Jordan and Syria, where Palestinian refugees have long been held at arms’ length. Staying non-violent while pressing their demands is a real challenge for Palestinians.
I worry that Israel thinks it can just walk away without paying. I worry that Palestinians will get too caught up in their genuine moral struggle to justify a fair deal, and lose it all. Most of all, I worry that the United States, Europe, and other allies to the region, will not place the pressure on both sides needed to force the negotiation.
But this is not a bazaar. With our own nation’s stake the region’s security, these players should not have the choice to do business or not. With our own nation’s influence, both diplomatic and financial, there is no reason why we can’t demand more from both sides. Everyone will think a deal is impossible until they’re forced to hash it out in a sweaty room. That is what we bring to the table. It’s time for us to make our own demands.
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