A Monument Worth a Thousand Men

The Hebrew name “Gilad” means “monument” in English. What sort of monument is worth trading over a thousand incarcerated men? What sort of man is worth a thousand others?

Monuments are symbols, and through this lopsided trade, Israel puts a largely symbolic issue to bed, and Israeli leaders get to claim credit. Hamas scores a great victory for the time-honored strategy of holding a symbol hostage, and its leaders are emboldened across the Palestinian territories. On its face, that’s all there is to it. But I suspect there’s much more.

First, consider the current Israeli government’s position. Social upheaval that has little to do with Palestine has threatened to upend its fragile coalition of callous warmongers and religious zealots. International pressure has been mounting at the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state, define the borders, and end the fighting, thus ending a status quo that has had over 40 years to cultivate beneficiaries in government, the military, and civil society, including about 500,000 armed and increasingly radicalized settlers on Palestinian land.

Then, consider Hamas’s position. Persecuted in the West Bank, mostly exiled to blockaded Gaza, Hamas has lost all of its clout, while its rival Fatah has been at the international negotiating table talking deals it neither likes nor can take credit for. The unending isolation of blockade has worn down Gazan morale, and weakened Hamas’s ability to effectively run its schools, hospitals, and police to tamp down fringe elements. Its own callous warmongers and religious zealots grow restless. Their one saving grace is the hostage they’ve held for over 5 years, and the massive political upside potential of a thousand freed brothers in arms from his release.   

So an exchange happens. Fractious Israel gets a symbolic victory that unites the nation behind the one institution they hold in common—the military. Waning Hamas uses overt hardball tactics to free a thousand men, many of whom are considered heroes of the resistance back home even as they served multiple life sentences for terrorist acts.

Wherever you stand on these matters, the thousand-to-one trade is fairer, and more cynical, than the world gives credit. The point is not to look at the three orders of magnitude between one soldier and a thousand prisoners. Look instead at the brokers of the deal, and what they stand to benefit.

Hamas’s position is easier to understand. A thousand men for one symbol in captivity. Its most promising leaders, long incarcerated, now free to fight for the cause. Compare a thousand liberated warriors, many of whom are famous, to Fatah’s symbolic overture towards the UN. Hamas gets results. Fatah’s technocrats look ineffectual. Hamas is enjoying a revival of proportions that were unimaginable a month ago. Marwan Barghouti, often described as Palestine’s Mandela, now walks free. He's part of ongoing negotiations with Fatah.

Israel’s position is more complex. First, forget about whether you think there ought to be a peace deal and what its terms should be. This isn’t about getting closer to a peace deal. It’s about holding out for the best possible price. Ever since Ariel Sharon pulled Israeli troops and settlers from Gaza, Israel has endured a few rockets on an immigrant town in the desert in exchange for building thousands of new homes on occupied territory. Hamas was relegated to Gaza, while Fatah operates in the West Bank, effectively splitting the Palestinian cause, and a peace deal is no closer than it was when Sharon took office in 2001. That’s ten years of continued policy in exchange for one miserable strip of land that nobody wanted anyway.  

Giving Hamas what it wanted means that Israel no longer has to change. Israeli public opinion feels good about brining one of their boys home, and there’s an election next year. Its negotiating partner for peace suddenly has a radical internal rival to contend with. Soon enough, the terrorism will start again, and Israelis will forget about economic inequality and labor strikes.  For Israel, an enemy flush with victory is one you can fight with a moral authority the world recognizes. And the settlements will continue to grow.

If all goes as planned, and this moment propels Hamas’s warmongers and religious zealots into action, then nothing new will get done. More attacks on Israeli civilians mean more justifiable repression and retribution. It will be another ten years before negotiations are talked about, and meanwhile, the settlements will continue to grow.

The only way out is if Hamas embraces non-violent agitation. A thousand freed men is a real victory. Let’s hope one of them is someone the world will build monuments for.